Friday, May 30, 2014

Determined Tories have the edge
to vote Tim Hudak into power

A new Ipsos Reid poll conducted on behalf of CTV News and CP24 contains some disturbing information for those of us who want to see Tim Hudak defeated in the Ontario Election. This new information makes the best case so far for a strong and determined campaign so that the Conservatives can be stopped.

Image courtesy of NetNewsledger.com
Unfortunately, one piece of information is bound to make potential Liberal voters complacent about voting. Regardless of who they would personally vote for, half (52%) of Ontarians believe that the Liberals will win the election and form the next government, while (35%) of Ontarians think the Progressive Conservatives will win, and only (14%) are picking the NDP.

But danger lurks behind the scenes. The Ipsos poll revealed that the Tories continue to record high figures among likely voters—those actually committed to show up on Election Day – favour the Tories (41%) over the NDP (29%) or Liberals (25%).

In fact, seven in ten (70%) PC voters say that ‘nothing short of an unforeseen emergency could stop me from getting to the voting booth and casting my vote’, making their voters the most motivated to show up. The much smaller number of NDP voters similarly committed to actually showing up is (68%).

However, only 53% of Liberal voters are committed to actually vote, perhaps signalling higher confidence that they will win or some dissatisfaction with the government (but not enough to move them to support another party).

Writes Ipsos:

“While Ontarians believe that momentum might be slightly favouring the Liberals, if Liberal support continues to be anemic, with supporters sitting on their hands rather than heading to the ballot box, the Tories will likely cruise to victory.”